Reflections from the cryptosphere, or a fintech conference in NYC

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We don’t invest in financials or consumer companies. But, as Liza Minnelli observed, money makes the world go round. Where is money moving, how it is being moved, how are people feeling in the middle of it. On sentiment, Robert Putnam’s[1] work rang true in spades – that America has shifted from common purpose to individualism – and deteriorated in this sense even compared to trips earlier in the year. 5 minutes out of JFK, my taxi driver explained that ‘things [were] really tense’; latterly proven to be an understatement given Charlie Kirk’s assassination. Multilateral distrust is running hot - a tranche of which relates to waning confidence in financial systems, institutional anything, and fiat currencies. For individuals, the scepticism hardens the need for greater control, transparency and ‘a better deal’ – with reason. Corpay describes sharply weaker discretionary spending. Credit providers talk plainly of households on the edge, with middle-income occupying a growing share. 57% of US consumers are living paycheck-to-paycheck[2]. The federal reserve minimum wage has remained unchanged at $7.25[3] since 2009; fertile ground for the proponents of alternative financial systems.

Amidst the social unrest and divergent political factions, crypto appears to offer cause for optimism. The tone has shifted from fanaticism to function. One east coast investor remarked that America was ‘finally waking up to how bad their deal is’ – meant in relation to offerings from legacy banks. Discussions with private and public market investors were balanced, centring on comparisons of practical merit: remittances, cost, speed, asset class liquidity. This administration appears to have ushered in a fascinating change in the financial landscape: things that sat in the realm of outlandish ideas with unproven utility and economics are now ‘nearly there’. Stablecoins are coming soon to a wallet near you, tokenisation is ‘quarters away’. Consensus on crypto is moving from it belonging in a casino, to being akin to the introduction of digital media to replace print media. Cheaper, faster, more scalable, optimised for distribution – this is the new infrastructure for modern finance.

In part, the shift is down to a concerted effort from firms such as Circle to move the narrative away from rocket emojis towards pragmatic conversations on utility. Here, the conversations focus less on bitcoin and individual cryptocurrencies (or NFTs) and more on the structural benefits that stablecoins and the architecture of blockchains such as Ethereum can provide. Coinbase launched a provocative campaign attempting to ‘depress the UK into action’[5]. Its dystopian message was controversial on this side of the pond, but it was put to me that similar marketing in the US went without commotion because people agreed with the message – and the need for change.  Proletarian discontent does not a revolution make. Jamie Dimon leaving his ‘pet rock’[6] days behind us might well do.

JP Morgan has partnered with Circle and Coinbase to allow users to fund their crypto wallets with Chase credit cards, the starting point of a much larger potential integration between the TradFi behemoth and the new kids on the block. Blackrock and Franklin Templeton have partnered with eToro to offer their funds on a platform with broader reach across a different demographic. Both point to material shifts in participation. 16 years after the launch of Bitcoin, ‘the future of money may be here and at its centre: stablecoins’[7]. The irony of whether the future of a decentralised system is for it to be centralised by a private, rather than public institution is another subject. For now, we have seen a >50% growth in stablecoin supply year over year and the combined transfer volume for 2024 reach 27.6 trillion, surpassing the combined volume of Visa and Mastercard. Coinbase notes that 90% of Fortune500 executives support the GENIUS act and regulatory support for crypto. Given the importance of consumer apps in reaching mainstream adoption, stablecoins play a crucial role. 82% SMBs view crypto as having potential to solve daily pain points (cross border transactions etc), an experience Brian Armstrong remembers from his days as an engineer at Airbnb and cites as impelling him to push Coinbase further. This is ‘not just a trade’ for Brian, unlike Sam Bankman Fried who perhaps set out to ride the wave while he could, but a durable upgrade in the tech stack of money.

Signs of duration and adoption are poking through – April 2025 marked a 245x increase in Real World Asset Tokenisation over the preceding 5 years[8]. Stablecoins themselves likely become commoditised – and only USDT and USDC have sufficient liquidity to work as designed – but the initial value of the displacement is of note. Infrastructure first, move to higher value products longer term. USDT is growing like a weed, with striking market dominance ex-US. USDT represents 90% of global stablecoin supply and is diversifying rapidly across real assets, from Argentinian farmland to gold royalty streams. Revenue per employee has outstripped Franco Nevada and is now second only to OnlyFans.

This moment is geopolitically complex and significant. Stablecoins may offer an extension to the American experiment, or even the Western experiment. If the benefits of USDC (as an example) are such that we continue to see swift adoption in emerging markets and international conglomerates, it may give the dollar another breath of life. The global hegemony of the greenback as we know it is under question. The potential of bitcoin, along with gold, as an alternative reserve currency crops up, but stablecoins, with potential liquidity and supposed volatility benefits, may be better suited as a straight swap for treasuries. In serving as an anchor investor in the T-bill market, stablecoins potentially helping to offset concerns on who will fund the US deficit. This is what Russia is worried about. Putin’s advisor, Dmitry Kobyakov[10], announced in his speech at the Eastern Economic Forum on September 6th that Washington is seeking to ‘rewrite the rules of the gold and crypto markets’ as alternatives to incumbent systems while addressing declining dollar dominance’:

One doubts whether the level of concern would be as high were it not for the change in institutional backing. Meetings with indexes and platforms seeking to create our financial future focused on crypto adoption and on their plans for tokenised securities. BCG pegs the potential market for tokenized RWAs, including stocks, at about $16.1 trillion by 2030[11]. Only about $22 billion in assets are tokenized on‑chain today. $528 million of this trading volume is stocks. Solana was mentioned as a potential winner, along with ETH. Capital will follow liquidity and likely reinforce early leads that curry regulatory favour. It is nearer than people think - eToro has launched tokenised assets before, the tech is in place.

Nasdaq has filed a proposal with the SEC to change its rules to allow for trading of listed stocks and ETFs on its main market ‘in either traditional digital or tokenised form’. It plans to integrate this into existing infrastructure by 2026 and allow tokenised and traditional securities to trade by side. Bank of America and Citi are said to be looking to do the same. We don’t yet know exactly what regulation will look like - a wrapper on an existing share, a new asset class, something entirely different - but according to Coinbase, it is quarters away. Tokenisation may allow the bypassing of capital markets altogether. This likely brings more asset classes on chain once blockchain technology and index integration iron out remaining hurdles. Similarly, it is unlikely that the SEC and MIFID will simply do away with their intricate regulations around asset classes just because a share has been dressed up as a token or someone has tokenised a private equity stake.

This likely increases liquidity across illiquid asset classes but introduces a whole new layer of programmability. Payments can occur automatically when certain conditions are fulfilled. Financial institutions likely become able to issue tokens themselves, creating new marketplaces for trading tokenised assets and potentially a more efficient financial system within it. In a global economy where digital goods and services represent an ever-greater share, a move to a tokenised economy may be a natural progression and upgrade.

A tipping point may be near. Stablecoin demand is now hitting the job market at pace – seeking specifically to poach employees from ‘future legacy’ corporate banks, perhaps in the hope they might make good gamekeepers. Global wallet address adoption has exceeded 500mn, emerging markets growth is up 30% YoY and corporate use of stablecoins has grown by 25%, for cross-border payments and supply chain settlement. This volume growth denotes a shift in usage beyond mere flights to safety in moving money from higher risk domestic economies, as initially exemplified by the swift adoption of stablecoins in the Messi of economically precarious countries, Argentina. If FX reserves remain analogous to distribution of power, the support that stablecoins offer to reserve asset dollars could engender a symbiotic relationship with continued government support.

Some people still loathe crypto - hints of jealousy, resentment, and people being ill informed. This somehow ties into feelings about Trump and the current administration. If you reject him, you must reject everything he stands for - even if it means paying 5-7% on international transfers for no good reason. But the awareness of the practical benefits is the marked recent change. One CEO commented that ‘the thing is that the big banks haven’t delivered functional improvement. I’m not sure they know what that is. This may be the case – if so, the partnership opportunity for Coinbase, Circle et al is significant – the Direct Bank-to-Wallet connection between JPM and COIN is touted as setting a new standard for customer crypto relationships. Given the potency of Wall Street’s response to FOMO, the others might not be far behind them.

[1] 'Upswing, ‘many of the corporate titans who dominate the American imagination live by an ideology of individualism that barely masks selfishness and an air of superiority. A philosophy of supreme self-reliance is common, and the pursuit of unfettered self-interest is considered a laudable ethic to live by’ R Puntam, Harvard Gazette

[2] Market Watch Financial Success Survey.

[3] https://www.dol.gov/general/topic/wages/minimumwage

[4] Enova Investor Presentation Sep 25 25 p.8

[5] 'If everything is fine, don't change anything at all'

[6] ‘I don’t care. I call it the pet rock’ Jamie Dimon, Davos 2024.

[7] https://www.coinbase.com/en-gb/blog/the-state-of-crypto-the-future-of-money-is-here

[8] https://www.investax.io/blog/q2-2025-rwa-tokenization-market-report

[9] https://s206.q4cdn.com/265218871/files/doc_financials/2025/q2/Q2-2025-Earnings-Presentation.pdf p5

[10] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/putin-adviser-accuses-us-planning-000019647.html

[11] BCG estimates that tokenized fund AUM could reach 1% of global mutual funds and
exchange-traded funds (ETF) AUM in just seven years https://www.bcg.com/press/29october2024-tokenized-funds-the-third-revolution-in-asset-management-decoded